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How Are Seasonal Forecasts Produced?

Months ago, ICPAC issued a forecast predicting a poor upcoming rainy season. Two consecutive faulty rainy seasons are problematic in several parts of the region, and they have resulted in problems with crop production, poor rangeland conditions and rising cereal prices. At the moment, many parts of East Africa are going through a period of drought, and we asked some of the climate experts at ICPAC to explain a bit about how they predict extreme weather events like this one, and what they do to prevent it.

Dr Zewdu Tessema Segele is a Climate Modeling Officer at ICPAC. In this video, Dr Segele will explain how seasonal forecasts are made.

Dr Zewdu Tessema Segele