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Celebrating a significant milestone in Dynamical Downscaling over Eastern Africa

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale the weekly, monthly, and seasonal forecasts. The information is essential for decision-makers in various sectors, such as Agriculture, Health, Water, Energy, and Disaster Risk Management, as it provides a clearer picture of potential impacts, aiding in the tactical and strategic planning, risk mitigation, and policy formulation. 

The WRF model high-resolution simulations can capture the local effects such as land-lake breezes, mountain effects, and heterogeneous vegetation cover, often not captured by the Global Climate Models (GCMs). The hindcast is run at a resolution of 10km compared to the GCMs, which are primarily available at resolutions higher than 100 km.

The 42 years of hindcast data have been downscaled through the CONFER project at hourly and six hourly timescales targeting October to December season. Comprising four ensemble members per year, the repository facilitates the development of probabilistic forecasts and empowers the generation of more tailored estimates for the different sectors.

The data will be available to all the region’s National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. Making this data freely available will foster collaboration, innovation, and the development of practical solutions across various regional sectors and areas.